One of the most resounding articles in the history of Think Poker was written by Luciano Jurczyszyn; in it he said what follows.

Not so long  ago, if a player did a 3bet, it was very likely that he would do it with a Premium hand. However, poker has changed a lot since its beginnings. These days, the level of aggressiveness is on a constant high, and is normal to see players do a 3bet or a 4bet with marginal hands, because they think they have a shot at taking the pot preflop.

At the same time, poker broadcasts on tv showing Phil Ivey  winning gigantic pots with hands like 5 2 made players widen the range of cards in their hands to call or raise preflop.

We all have stories where we’ve won big pots under these type of circumstances. But, the truth is that Phil is one of the best players in the world, extremely skilled at reading his opponents, thanks to years of experience at the tables with the highest level bets. And that’s no small feat.

The mathematical reality for these kind of hands can be seen below by observing the probability for success preflop for a hand with similar characteristics:

Probability for winning pre-flop with 7 8:
Against 1 rival is 48%  
Against 2 rivals is 32% 
Against 3 rivals is 25%
Against 4 rivals is 21% 
Against 5 rivals is 18%
Against 6 rivals is 16%  
Against 7 rivals is 14% 
Against 8 rivals is 13%

However, if you are just starting out in poker, do not think this hands will be profitable in most cases. In fact, exactly the opposite thing will happen.

When we start thinking of poker as a game in which decisions are based in long-term success, we will understand why there are certain times at which the hand will be profitable (this will be dictated by the reality of the table at that precise point in the game), and why there are times when it will be better to hold your ground.

Generally speaking, when we go in holding marginal cards like J 2 / 10 6 or 9 4 , the flop won’t help us and we’ll be forced to try and steal the pot by bluffing, which will occasionally, be called by our rival to reveal later, a superior hand to ours.

Nevertheless, there’s still something worse than having to bluff your way into winning the round when we are pot-committed; and that’s when we flop in what looks like a favorable way just to lose a bunch of chips, which will happen in most cases.

For example, if we play J 6 and the flop shows J 8 2 , one might think we have the better hand (the highest pair in the table), and in fact, we will most of the time. However, if our rival is playing cards like  A J or K J, then we will be in trouble, given that if we don’t improve our hand at the turn or the river, we will find ourselves in a situation knows as a low kicker.

At the same time, it may happen that we get double pairs and still be defeated by  higher double pairs, which would also mean a big loss in chips (at a tournament) or money (at cash games). Herein the importance of going into a poker game with good hands, in this way improving our chances of winning if we get a pair or some other game.

This is the way we learn to better analyze situations and get the necessary experience to -after a while- start to widen our range with regards to the hands we play, reaching the point when we’ll be able to spot a good opportunity to lever a potential win playing a marginal hand.

Until such a time comes, it would be advisable to always have a good hand and take the pot with them, arming us with confidence, and, above all, prevent us from losing more than is strictly necessary, because, as you see, dear reader, in poker, the winner is the one who loses the least, and, as I always say, the one who folds the most.

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Original author: Luciano Jurczyszyn

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